Where does housing go from here?

The “housing crisis” in the U.S. has been a major blow to almost every homeowner, every real estate investor, every bank and financial institution writing mortgages and the financial system as a whole. Things are slightly more stable than six months ago. “Slightly” is the key word and the stabilization might well be only an illusion.

The federal government has done a lot to “help” through actions of the Federal Reserve, HUD, FHA, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, and direct bailouts to most of the mortgage lenders. Most of the changes seem to have allowed the pain to be less over a much longer time period. The bailouts let the financial institutions get back to profitability quickly without going bankrupt. All of the iterations of HAMP and other programs to help borrowers have instead also mostly helped the financial institutions. Changes to the way banks can report foreclosed and repossessed properties also benefitted the banks and not the homeowners.

Now homeowners trying to sell are still slashing the asking price to find buyers so prices are still falling in most parts of the country. Borrowers that were in trouble are still in trouble whether they were some of the lucky few granted rewritten mortgages or refinancing or not. Homes are still being foreclosed upon in record numbers. The inventory of REO residential properties for sale is growing and the “shadow inventory” of REO properties held by banks but not on the market is growing even faster. Buyers are going away to wait for better times or sitting on the sidelines waiting for even better prices. Private real estate investors are caught in the middle of the mess along with everyone else, getting “great” deals on foreclosure auction properties and seeing profit margins shrivel up before they can get the house back on the market.

There are a few bright spots though many would not see anything very good about them. Lenders, finally pushed into a corner by ballooning foreclosure inventories, are starting to seriously consider more mortgage rewrites and refinance packages to make existing deals realistically affordable for homeowners and avoid further foreclosures. Real estate investors are finding a large pool of takers for houses they are unable to sell for a profit by offering to rent, rent-to-own or lease-option instead.

Real stabilization and reduction of the REO inventory will only come when buyers agree that asking prices are fair and are not likely get any lower. This is classic free-market economics. When that point is reached it will still take several years for inventories of homes to reach reasonable levels again as many people who want to sell now are waiting for that time before listing their home. There is still some market for new-construction homes but it is small and remain that way until the existing-home situation is solved.

So, to the question asked in the title: “Where does housing go from here?” The sensible answer would seem to be: “Not very far and not very quickly.” This problem is just going to have to work itself out, almost certainly over the course of the next several years. It just is not going to matter very much what else the federal government does or the banks do or real estate investors do or anyone else does. The “housing crisis” was created by nearly everyone involved trying to get rich quick and the fallout and pain is going to last for a long time. Those who were prudent and kept the risks in mind have not been hurt nearly as badly as those who let greed drive the risks right out of their minds. Hopefully the one thing we can all count on after going through this is that lenders and borrowers will both learn important lessons from it. Don’t try to take that to the bank!

Effective government Mortgage help for homeowners?

Can the federal government really have much impact on the number of consumer mortgages that go into default? So far the answer would appear to be no, but the programs offered have been quite limited and not many homeowners have even qualified. The answer for the next round remains to be seen.

First there was the Making Homes Affordable program launched in 2008. Though the intentions were good the program showed the governments lack of grasp of the reasons home mortgages were going into default. The program targeted people with equity in their homes and who were current in their monthly payments. It encouraged lenders to refinance at lower interest rates and/or lesser principal amounts to lower payments to a more affordable level. With the drastic drops of property values and the rapid rise of the unemployed, most folks in mortgage trouble were left out in the cold. There was also very little incentive for the banks to take part in this program.

New provisions have now been added that try to make up for some of the original shortfalls. Eligibility now extends to properties valued at least 15% less than the amount of the mortgage. The unemployed are also targeted. Lenders are encouraged to refinance with FHA guarantees at a new principal of 97.75% of the actual property value, getting people above water on their mortgages again. Another goal is have maximum monthly payments of 31% or less of the borrowers income. Banks are also encouraged to offer up to six months on reduced or furloughed payments to help those who are out of work. Participation by lenders is still voluntary but some of the larger banks are showing signs of they think keeping people in their homes is better than foreclosing and trying to sell in today’s real estate market.

The problem of second mortgages, a large part of many lenders’ portfolios, remains unaddressed. Also not tackled is the problem of unaffordable mortgages on properties that have not drastically dropped in value. All of these loans will still go into default if the borrowers not find a job quickly or lose the job they currently have. The impact of the many commercial real estate loans about to come due is also ignored and could have a major impact on the whole economy. There are still interesting times ahead for all of us.